Saturday 25 January 2014

 

12:25 Doncaster – Sky Bet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle

SOMEMOTHERSDOHAVEM may be able to continue Venetia Williams’ good run of form in the hands of the forever under-rated Liam Treadwell. A 74 rated stayer on the flat the son of Avonbridge turned his hand to jumping last year for flat based trainer, John Ryan.

He did quite well for Ryan running well on numerous occasions and bagging a handicap here on Town Moor, this day showing a strong ability to stay in a race that may have fallen in his lap a touch.

He was considered for the Triumph Hurdle, going off a 66/1 shot and was totally outclassed. He would finish the year strong at Ascot and Sandwon though with a sound second at the former track and a staying on fourth at the latter venue.

His Ascot effort was sound, quite decent in fact with the winner and the second of that race giving the form a solid look. He got two pounds from the race victor, was beaten a head and his defeater is now rated 136. The third horse Somemothersdohavem beat two-and-a-half lengths giving him nine pounds and that horse is now rated 129.

The selection runs from a mark of 123 today in arguably a race less competitive than his last three starts.

He does have to bounce back from a poor effort at Kempton  29 days ago, but that was on very soft terrain on a track that may not have suited. He was also a drifter in the betting and given his price today I’m willing to take a chance.

The step-up in trip should suit, he has course winning experience, represents in form connections and unexposed five-year-olds have a good record in this race.

Centasia will be tough to beat so I’m going to suggest a bet in the market without her.

Advice

1pt each-way SOMEMOTHERSDOHAVEM without Centasia @11/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)

1.15 Cheltenham – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase

There are signs that the Tizzard yard are running into a bit of form and with that in mind OHIO GOLD looks to hold strong claims in this novices’ handicap chase.

Although still a maiden after eight starts over fences he has come up against some real classy types and now back in novice handicap company he may finally be able to break his duck.

Horse to have beaten him last year include Majala (148), Fago (150), Cloudy Too (157) and Rajdhani Express (155). The figures in brackets are their current ratings. Ohio Gold today runs from a mark of 132 and still against novices.

This season has been a bit of a disaster for the section, but his latest strong staying second at Kempton showed signs of a revival. What’s more interesting, however is he returns to a left-handed track for the first time this season having jumped out to his left on all three starts this campaign.

He also returns to a course where he has plenty of experience and has run well before and that is always a positive at Cheltenham.

Given his experience, mark and recent signs of returning to form he looks to hold sound claims on ground that shouldn’t pose too many problems. Being that year or two older than most in this company, on this ground may also prove decisive late on.

Advice

2pts each-way OHIO GOLD @13/2 (Stan James), 6/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)

2.25 Cheltenham – Argento Chase

He’s hardly a solid proposition, but THE GIANT BOLSTER stands out at the prices in what looks a poor Argento Chase. Not one favourite has won this race in the last ten years and I’m very much willing to take on Rocky Creek at the prices.

He is part of an under achieving crop of novice chasers from the last campaign and has no Cheltenham form. Harry Topper (no Cheltenham form either) and Houblon Des Obeaux are another pair from last season’s novices and with all three having to give The Giant Bolster weight they simply can’t be backed at the prices.

Champion Court has stamina doubts over this trip, but looks a sound back to lay in running opportunity and Restless Harry along with Pigeon Island don’t look good enough.

People must remember The Giant Bolster finished fourth and second in the last two Cheltenham Gold Cups and meets nothing of that calibre here.

He’s not a solid bet, but if he clicks he could easily win this and certainly warrants a bet at the prices. The race may well be run to suit with Champion Court in and it may be a case of stamina winning the day late on.

For basically a point shorter in the betting The Giant Bolster can be backed in the ‘faller insurance’ market. He has had problems in the past in this department and should he fall, unseat or be brought down today we will have our stake returned.

Advice

1pt win THE GIANT BOLSTER @6/1 faller insurance market (Bet Victor, Paddy Power)

3.15 Doncaster – Sky Bet Chase

MART LANE looks over-priced in the Sky Bet Chase, Doncaster’s big race on the day. Dr Richard Newland has his string in good form and this son of Stowaway raised his game with the reapplication of blinkers last time out.

It wasn’t a great race, but he won it with authority and showed his liking for Doncaster. There doesn’t look to be a whole pile of pace on today so his prominent racing style should be seen to good effect.

Tom O’Brien takes the ride and given he has plenty going for him he looks a big price.

Advice

1pt each-way MART LANE @18/1 (bet365, Ladbrokes, Stan James)

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